 St Leger Challenge Final 3YO Colts  3200m Turf 30th March 2011Last Season's Final
 Without doubt the best three year old colt in training. Creative Chaos will be featruing prominently in both finals over classic and staying distances and is not without a chance of winning both and cleaning up. It is likely that his challenge career will end in this race so as is always with one that may be too weighty for a hilt in future season's, he would like to go out with a bang. The yard is strong in this race.
If any horse is going to rain on Creative Chaos' parade in this race, it will be Chicarito. You would probably get very short odds on the stable winning this with his two muscular entries. The trip is of no consequence for him and he is sure to handle the going with relish. I would go as far to say that he will beat his stable mate in this race. If there is a one-two for the yard, that wouldn't suprise me either.
 Herminator is a competant horse on a yielding track. He has never been out of the money when running yielding and this race would be very lucrative to continue that good form. The unfortunate thing for Herminator is that he is a horse who will not stay this extended trip and on that, must be opposed.
Yabba Dabba Do is another horse that will enjoy the underfoot conditions but like Herminator before him, the jury is out whether 3200m is trip he can handle. He has only ran over the trip during his juvenile season and it is hard to read that form if he were being sand bagged. I get the impression he wasn't doing such a thing and he could struggle here.
 No such worries with the trip for Nashville Boy as he will take this trip with relative ease. The concern is the going and his lack of efforts on it. The expensive auction buy has failed to deliver the goods for his yard in a final, bar his fourth place finish in a Ladbrokes final and it looks like he will have to wait another season in hope of a challenge title that his talent definately deserves.
 Sixth in the juvenile last season looked a sound enough effort in defeat. He doesn't have the greatest form over 3200m and a yielding surface is likely to favour some of his closest rivals here. All in all, the race could be a little too hot to handle and despite a probable good effort from the yard, he is likely to be more midfield than a championship contender.
Emprise To Avalon is a horse that would have benefitted with a surface void of any rain by the looks of things. His obvious liking to the trip helps his cause here but his only effort on a yielding track is a form line that is dificult to survey. I think his chance lies if all others fail and he may not be the one for the yard in this.
Chew Stoke will be making his challenge final debut in this race. He has winning form over the trip on a firm and muddy going, proving his versatility. This race will need to see him at his very best. The going of yielding has not posed any threat to him in the past and with a little luck in the race he could be a lively outsider for the championship. He has done well for the yard since his auction purchase and he may continue to do so in this race.
Ran Creative Chaos to a length and a half when fourth behind in the classic juvenile final over a far shorter trip last season. His two other finals have come on a muddy surface and his runs in them have been below par. There maybe better horses in this race over the trip and for me the task for this horse looks a difficult one.
Emperor Alexander was a consistent horse at last seasons festival and will look to continue the trend this term with an appearance in The Derby as well as this Leger final. He has only ever had the one qualifying race over the trip of 3200m and that fact pays to think that he will not secure a run in this. I just don't think he is as highly regarded over the marathon distance as much as he is over 2850m.
Tannery is another horse in the race that will be making a first start in a challenge final. His lack of yielding runs may look a bit sparse on the face of things but that may not be a statistic to be taken in a negative way. He has the necessary form on soft going to indicate he may well be as effective on yielding. His auction price seems a snip and his trainer has an eye for this type of runner and he is sure to go well. The trip is right up his street, so can we expect a bold show.
Northerly Sky has been unfortunate in the challenge finals of the past, running midfield in most. The horse will have difficulty with the trip and for me is the weakest of the three runners in the race that carry the famous black and yellow colours. We can't expect this one to be in the shake up at the line.
Last season saw Selwyn's Bog fly the flag for the Squeaky Clean Stable and he tackles familiar company here, looking to score an impressive double by taking the three year old crown. Unfortunately, it will not be the same outcome as last term. He will struggle to stamp any authority on the race. I'm not convinced that the going or trip are to his strengths and success here is going to be extremely difficult.
Tie The Knot is definately the pick of the trio from the yard, if form is anything to go by. He likes the trip but it appears that the going has come to his weakness. Although maybe not as strong on the going, he has been very unlucky in my opinion and would have been a contender bar for that. This race is not looking like being one for the Sky Castle yard. Best watched. |
Member Submission: Moletown
The future of horse racing is online at RaceClubs.com
horses, racing, championships, sponsorships, entertainment
No comments:
Post a Comment