Friday, March 25, 2011

Preview The Derby finalists before tipping the winners... you could win $500!

The Derby


2400m Turf
29th March 2011

Last Season's Final

 

This Season's Contenders


Trainer : Gods Country

 


The superlatives to describe the way Creative Chaos has performed in qualifying this season are endless. The 3YO has been impeccable over the final distance of 2400m which makes him a very tough cookie to overturn this season. For obvious reasons it is safe to say that the Gods Country trained bay is a strong ante post favourite but finals don't always go by the form book. Nevertheless, the going and the draw will probably have minimal effect on this ones effort and for me he is definately the one they all have to beat. The only chink in his armour I can find to lessen his chance here may be his fitness. With two finals at his mercy he may race a little below peak in this to enhance his chances in the St. Leger which could open the door slightly for one to be too good for him on the day. That said, Creative Chaos still gets my vote for Derby glory to add to last season's juvenile success.


 


The best form of this horse has arguably come on firm ground and the going could be key to his chance of success; and he remains a lively contender. Sky Castles' string of challenge horses are no strangers to success at the virtual festival and the yard have an uncanny knack of getting their horses spot on for race day. If all comes good on the night it would be no suprise to see this bay in with a chance as they turn for home. His full attention will be on gaining success in this race but whether he is good enough to head Creative Chaos, time will tell, an obvious threat.


Trainer : Slowstables

 


If form is anything to go by, Priego De Cordoba has a little to find to enhance his chance of tasting glory. He has performed well in qualifying, his third place in the standings evident of this. With the help of a top jockey he has scored three times over the final trip of 2400m and he acts better on a sound surface and he has no ties in the St. Leger so will be well prepped for this. It's difficult to make a case as an obvious choice for the win but he is not without quality and if given the run of the race, has place claims.


Trainer : Shotgun Mike

 


The first of the stablemate's to last seasons' winner will come into this race with expectation. The horse put in two sterling efforts in defeat at last season's championships and will be looking for a repeat of that consistency this term as he tackles both classic and stayer finals. It appears that he is better suited to this 2400m distance than the marathon stay that is the St. Leger this season and cannot be dismissed. It's no secret that the yard are king of the finals, so expect a prominent show from the famous green colours.


Trainer : Cotton Castle

 


Cotton House's faith in Gallipoli Prince could be richly rewarded if the colt were to go on and claim a famous success in this race. Since moving to the yard he has shown up well in three qualifiers, making a small profit for the yard. In a highly competitive race, the horse will need to be at his very best when lining up to tackle this field. He has winning form on firm ground over the trip, many of his rivals trailed in his wake on that occasion and a repeat would see him close. Can he win the race? He may find one or two just a tad too good.


Trainer : Stardust Racing

 


The fact that most of Lethal Injection's qualifying races have been second or third instances of the race may suggest that the confidence in the yard for his chance is not high. He will race with the big boys in this final and past meetings have been fruitless. He has been void of a qualifying win this term and there is not much evidence to suggest that he can buck that trend. Everything points to an also ran with a lot holding a decisive edge over him on form.


Horse : Classically

 


The difficult consideration to take into account when evaluating Clasically's chances in this race is whether or not the horse has been geared up at full throttle. I suspect that he has and if that is the case then it will be a struggle for this one to impact upon the race. His best run over the trip in qualifying came on a good surface when second to Creative Chaos. The jockey allocation in that race saw him go close but when you consider the winner and the manner in which he won the race it becomes even more clear cut that the Squeaky Clean representative will struggle in this field.


Horse : Thunderstew
Trainer : Wrs Stables

 


Thunderstew has walked a similar path en route to this final as the previous horse, Clasically. Mainly contesting second and third instance qualifiers, without much success and in fact was behind Clasically in a Super 3's race earlier this season. It is difficult to make a case for Thunderstew in this race based on his runs behind some of the more talented charges and by my reckoning the form will be franked. A midfield berth looks more likely the end result.


Trainer : Jonnymark

 


Judging by his name, the owner of Yabba Dabba Do must have been very pleased to evaluate his early potential. Having not represented the yard in a final before this race, the horse will be hell bent on running his heart out. He is also a dual finalist this season with claims in the St. Leger. His route to the final has been steady without setting the world on fire. His trainer has tinkered with and without blinkers in his races this term and it will be interesting to see, come race day, whether they will be on or off. There is form to suggest he is a lively outsider for the crown and this is probably his main aim as it appears the extended trip of 3200m for the St. Leger may not be his forte.


Trainer : Shotgun Mike

 


The one thing you get with any horse making an appearance in a challenge final, from this yard, is the knowledge that the horse possesses the quality to succeed. One thing for sure is that the horse will be at home over this trip and is sure to also figure in the St. Leger. He is already a challenge winner after taking down a juvenile monthly series over the marathon trip, so stamina is not the issue. Nobody will be more than determined to make up for last season's 5th place in the juvenile classic, maybe running a little below expectation. Of the pair that represent the yard in this race, I would go as far to say that Emprise To Avalon just edges stable mate Emperor Alexander as the number one string. This one is for sure going to be there or there abouts.


 


A couple of jockey assisted runs over the trip have seen Buff The Stuff go close on a couple of occasions but when it comes to the nitty gritty of a challenge final, which is littered with awesomeness, I feel Buff The Stuff may come up a little short. A good servant to the yard since his auction transfer from the Black Death stable, he has paid his way for sure. It is difficult to stick a pin in this one as a worthy contender and easy to oppose. His twilight season's may offer more in the way of challenge success.


Horse : Chicarito
Trainer : Gods Country

 


It's easy to get carried away and label Chicarito in the same league as stable companion, Creative Chaos. His qualifying campaign has been consistant and there is no doubt that you would get offered small odds on the yard winning this race with one of his colts. However, Chicarito just isn't in the same league as his roomy. If this were the real world of horse racing some might say that Chicarito is lining up as a pacemaker. When all is said and done though, there is ability in this colt but for this race no, for me it is the St. Leger that will see this horse show off his talent and his appearance there may be right up his street.


 


Last season saw this Sky Castle juvenile, just over a length third in the juvenile classic to eventual winner Creative Chaos. That form may look good on paper but the nature in which the race was won was all the more impressive. With that form as back-up, Veandercrosse may struggle to reverse placings with Creative Chaos. It is by no means an impossible scenario and there is everything to suggest that with the right conditions for the race, a good run is well within his capabilities. Like all horses from this yard, his owner knows exactly what is required and more than often they deliver, cannot dismiss chances.


Horse : Suvla Bay
Trainer : Jonnymark

 


Picked from the Gissys Nags yard at a very reasonable price, it would be a fairytale if this horse nailed his opponents on the line. Suvla Bay will certainly carve a healthy profit from his racing career for his new owner but in this race, interest will more than likely concentrate on the yards other runner in the race. Snippets of form indicate that a big race is in him but the fear for backers would be his consistency. His best efforts have come on a sound surface and should conditions suit on the day we may see the best of him, although there are others who show up better on his favoured going.


Moletown Says : This is, by far, one of the most competitive renewals of The Derby in recent seasons. The interest in the race is whether the ante post favourite for the race, Creative Chaos, can live up to all the hype. There is no doubting he is one of the best colts to race from classic to staying trips in recent seasons. His qualification points total for both challenge series he has contested, coupled togather, surely must be close to a record tally. There are several in the race that offer appeal as likely champions, most notably, Northerly Sky and Emprise To Avalon. Although many will challenge, it is extremely difficult to look beyond the credentials of likely heir to the throne, CREATIVE CHAOS and I will tip my hat to any horse that beats him in this race.


 


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