| The Derby  2200m Dirt Sunday, November 28th 2010, 8.00pmLast Season's Final
This Season's Contenders
 Gentleman Earl's last outing over course and distance was the first time that the colt has failed to place in a 2200m race on the surface. We can put this form line down to a blip in his record. There is no doubt that the colt will be fired up for the showcase race of the festival. He has winning form on the dirt when the going is fast but strangely has never won a race on the surface when it comes up muddy. The ding-dong battle he has had with Darley Arabian will come to a head in this final, in search of the ultimate prize. We will see Earl at his best in the final, I have no doubt about that! His efforts on a dirt track to date may not inspire 100% confidence that he can get one over on his adversary, Darley Arabian but on the night, it will be one hell of a battle. I cannot underestimate Earl's chances and for me, he has just as much chance of etching his name in Derby history. Moletown's Rating : 
On first sight, you may be excused for thinking that Dusk Til Dawn will find this trip a little on the short side and that his chances are far better in the St Leger final. Well, on studying the horse, the latter statement may be true but I can’t dismiss the colt's chances in the race. The yard will have him tip-top for the race and although he may be saving a little for the Leger, no eyebrow would be raised to see him turn in a good effort in this race. A lot depends on how high his trainer rates his chances of success in the St Leger final. His race preparation will be spot on but will we see a fully fit horse take to the track in this race. When all is said, the colt is certainly top drawer and a big run is expected and a place in the top four is certainly not beyond him. Moletown's Rating :
 Darley Arabian has never been out of the money on a dirt track over 2200m, fast or muddy. This consistency is unlikely to be broken when the runners go to post. The levels of performance that he shows is virtual world renowned and coupled with Gentleman Earl, they are the stand out pairing. Of course, neither of them are invincible and are susceptible to be turned over but both will be worthy of their position at the head of this market. Ironically, until this week, Darley Arabian had never won over 2200m on a fast track. That could have been a weakness in his almost perfect ability. I guess we will have to throw that legend out of the window as he has proven he is at home on the surface, whatever the going. If this were the real world, the hype this match-up would generate is unimaginable. I really can't say whether it will be Arabian or Earl who turns up on the night but I would really like to see them both at their best in what will truly be a memorable race. Moletown's Rating :
 Price Racing's dual final competitor is more than likely to find the pace a little too hot for his liking and I suspect that his best hope relies on a fast surface for the race. The colt would be a different proposition over a further trip. It's not that he hasn't won over the trip but more to do with the opposition he faced when winning and the class of race, making it almost impossible to favour him in this race. There are a good few who perform much better on this surface and distance. An outside chance of a place is about as far as I would go to predict. Moletown's Rating :
Tokii Dokii has never won a race on dirt, his best effort in qualifying came up a little short in terms of ability and it is difficult to see him causing the front runners in the race any sustainable threat. There are murmurs of some form that could suggest he will run above expectation but this field will prove too classy. Opposed with confidence. Moletown's Rating :
Napoleonic Wars commanded a huge price at auction and he is well on his way to repaying the faith shown in him by his yard. Last seasons juvenile classic runner-up has again shown some consistent form this term. He has only managed a solitary win on the surface which came in his maiden race over a longer trip. His best form over the trip has come on a muddy track and that may be the key to his chance here. Everything will have to fall into place if the colt has any sniff of victory. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the colt perform well and it is quite possible that he has run a lot of his races unfit this term, to keep the wins off to prolong his challenge career. A lively outsider in the race if muddy comes up but I think a victory in the race is not his destiny. He will be far better suited over a longer trip. Moletown's Rating :
What can I say about my own horse without being too biased. Well, his chances in the race are 100% reliable on fast being the going. If muddy is the order of the day, I don't hold too much hope that he will figure. On a fast track though, he is very classy. Evidence of this ability is clear to see in his form against the top two in the race and any mistake they make in the race could be capitalised on. I would love to upset the party with Moley but even a fast track has seen him come up short against the "mini monsters". A good draw and random will play a major part if he is to be nosing ahead at the line but it is not beyond him and I remain upbeat. He is certainly a danger in the race and I prey the rain does not come, if it does, I will start planning his next race. Moletown's Rating :
 I suppose you could say that Sky In Flight is of very similar mould to Holy Moley. The Sky Castle colt will probably have his chances considerably reduced if the ground comes up muddy. I would go as far to say that the pair are evenly matched. A form line in September saw Sky In Flight claim third behind Gentleman Earl and on that day Holy Moley was a half length to the good in second. A favourable turn in random allocation could see Sky In Flight head Moley. A lot rests on the going but the colt will be fully charged and up for the challenge and must be considered another lively horse who could upset a couple if they were to slip up. Moletown's Rating :
Soulquake System would hold similar chances in the race to Dusk Til Dawn. The pair are very similar indeed. They will both probably be aimed at the St Leger more than this race but like Dusk, Soulquake System is not beyond producing a great effort in this race. A lot will depend on the going for his chance but a good draw in the race could set him up nicely for a challenge. I don't think he will win the race as he is likely to face some stiff opposition here but a place in the money is not beyond his capabilities. Moletown's Rating :
White Major would have been better suited in a consolation race this term, instead of tackling these rivals. His form shows he has ability on a fast track but may be he is a little out of his depth here and will probably be treading water when most of these have crossed the line. Easily opposed. Moletown's Rating :
There is no doubting that El Legendario is one of the better staying three year old horses in this age division. However, this trip may be a little on the short side for him. I guess his best chances of making the frame will come if the track remains fast and he is given a favourable draw. Like his stable mate, Soulquake System and Dusk Til Dawn, will favour his chance in the St Leger but there is so little between the three horses that their chance in this race is pretty much the same. An inside draw, fast and a good random on the day could see a decent effort from this horse. Moletown's Rating :
Roar To The Core is a very decent animal on a turf track but this final is on dirt and that will put a serious dent in his chance here. It is difficult to make a claim for his chances against some thoroughbred animals that are obviously more suited to the conditions and even though a good draw and random will obviously help him claim, I do not see this horse making the virtual world stand up and applaud. A difficult challenge lies ahead and a midfield position would be a decent result for the horse. Moletown's Rating :
Polar Lights is a 2200m specialist who will be well suited by the trip. However, the dirt surface could pose a few questions marks. He has performed extremely well in level weight races this season and has the odd bit of form to shout about in Eclipse races, proving he is no slouch. His only win on dirt cam as recent as last month but will he have enough to display a winning run in this race is the question. I am not convinced that he will be laying down a challenge to some of these and for that reason he can be happy with a decent run on the night. His chance will be enhanced if the going is muddy but that only goes to create an even bigger monster as both the "mini monsters" would prefer the surface that way. Moletown's Rating :
A late season auction dip from the Victor Consortio yard saw him change stables. Two Derby qualifiers later saw him make this final but I am not sure if that was the intended plan of the yard. His only run over the trip was in a Consolation Monthly Challenge last season, finishing second behind Doldrums. I don't think that the conditions in the race will play to his strengths and he may have been best suited had he dropped into the consolation race. A tough ask for this staying colt, which may play a bigger part in this season's festival when he competes in the St Leger consolation race. An uphill task for this colt over today’s trip and will struggle with most of these. Moletown's Rating : |
Member Submission: Moletown
The future of horse racing is online at RaceClubs.com
horses, racing, championships, sponsorships, entertainment
No comments:
Post a Comment