| Nunthorpe Sprint Final 3YO Colts  1200m Dirt Saturday, November 27th 2010, 8.00pmLast Season's Final
This Season's Contenders
 If you haven't heard of Darley Arabian then you have been on a different virtual planet for the last two seasons. All the superlatives have been said before now so I won't bore you all with how good he is. That's obvious! What isn't obvious to you all is despite all the races, he has only ever run on dirt on three occasions over the distance this final will be run. Ok, so he won two from three and finished last of fourteen in the other so I guess the trip and surface will pose no issue for the colt. What is interesting is that his two wins have come on muddy, so will fast going prove a chink in the armour or was that a blip, put down to a bad training effort by his yard. If you look a little deeper, you will also find that he has avoided 1200m races in preference of a further distance and although he will go off a hot favourite, there are suspicisions that he can be beat and with his attention focussed on The Derby, he will not be run at optimum fitness which may also open the door for a lesser type to spring a championship surprise. Hot favourite or also ran? Obviously still a hot favourite! Moletown's Rating : 
 More often than not, Earl has also avoided the 1200m trip, only running the distance three times in his career. He has never recorded a win at the trip and that may suggest he is not the force some may think he is when it comes to a shorter sprint distance. When you look at all the form, his efforts have been exceptional on a dirt track. Over half his career wins have come on the surface, so it is obvious he has no issue with the underfoot conditions. He too will be focussed for the showpiece of the festival and I think his trainer will excuse him somewhat in this race if he fails to deliver in preference of victory in The Derby. On a personal note, I think he has solid claims in the race and this may be controversial to suggest but I don't consider him a winner in this race, regardless of how good he is. Reputation may be enough for some but hard facts will always stand up. He has never won at the trip and I don't think he will now. Is he out of the race completely? I would be daft to even think that! He will be there abouts in most fields. Moletown's Rating :
Toxic Armada has been as busy a horse as any of the two that topped the series standings. His form card reads well and it must be frustrating for the trainer to have so many races in his history headed by either Arabian or Earl. He was third behind Silver sprinter in last season's juvenile spint final and that form must not be dismissed in his challenge here. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem much hope in him repeating that performance in this race. His efforts on a dirt track are sub-standard and the distance will be on the short side for him. Despite a very good qualifying campaign, he will be found out in the final and will have to run a magnificent race, well above his ability to get anywhere near at the finish. Moletown's Rating :
 Runner-up in the sprint final last term and looking to run another big race is Wizzimo. The trip last season may have been right up his street but I think the 1200m of this final will be less than perfect. His wins are still low which would suggest he will have a prolonged challenge career beyond his three-year-old campaign and he may be best suited to an extended distance and may find this trip, like Toxic Armada, a little too hot. He does have winning form over 1200m but his lack of form in qualifier's run over the distance could suggest that he isn't in the upper realms of quality in respect to the trip. That said, there is no doubt he has ability over further and he is probably the yard's best hope in this race. Moletown's Rating :
King Kenny D is held in the highest regard by his trainer and he has shouted all season about how he thinks the horse is a God, just like his namesake. We all know how easy it is for a scouser to get carried away, but maybe on this occassion he might be right and who am I to suggest that King Kenny D cannot beat the best. After all, he has done it before and has run some of the best in the business, close this season. I would be a little concerned for his chances iof the ground was to come up muddy but on a fast track, if settled well could spring a surprise. If the big two slip up then King Kenny D may be the one to capitalise. All has to be right on the night for the colt but he is by no means an outsider, call him a lively each-way bet. Moletown's Rating :
Star Watch's performances over a 1200m distance have been far from exhilarating. He has mainly contested his career over 1400m, with the odd winning run at 1600m, two from two. His chances in this race look bleak from the off, if his form line is anything to go by and he may struggle to go the pace. There is not enough evidence to suggest that this race will suit him and therefore he can easily be overlooked. Moletown's Rating :
 1400m, 1600m, 2200m are all distances that Jose Mourinho has won at. Is he the special one..?? ....err, when it comes to 1200m....no! A below par effort down the field is his only real line of solid form at the trip and like so many before him, it appears that he too will also find this a stern test of his ability. It's difficult to see him figuring in the race. His best efforts are likely to come over a distance a little further. Moletown's Rating :
Shadow Lodge's 1200m runner, Shadow Bullet is one of a few in the race who will enjoy the trip but will probably still need to find a bit if he is to compete in this, despite nine of his fifteen wins coming on the surface. He is a very consistent performer in level weight races and WFA and has some very tasty form to read. However, his qualifying races haven't really been up to much and he may still struggle with classy runners all around him. A big run is certainly not beyond him but it would have to be his personal best if he is to stand toe to toe with some of these. Moletown's Rating :
£100 at auction, thirteen races later and over £500 in prize money! Business as usual in the champion's yard. If anyone can get the best out of this horse, Micke can. He is the only horse representing the colours in this final and if his form is anything to go by, a fast going will be the order of the day for any chance he has. It is going to be a tough ask but a good draw and favourable random and he could run a big race. He has only one win to his name over the distance, a novice juvenile that cracked his maiden. He is probably a long shot in the race but with the green army in full swing, any final's runner could turn the form book on its head. Moletown's Rating :
Terra Sky is something of a 1000m specialist, evident by his 100% domination of the series qualifiers over the trip. His 1200m form is nothing of note and he may find that he is gasping for air inside the final 200m. It is very hard to make a case for his chance in this final but it would probably have been a different story if they decided to move the line further up the final straight. I expect this one to set the pace, only to be swamped down the home straight. Moletown's Rating :
Silver Sprinter may come into this final as the one who beat them all last term but this race is a different kettle of fish for the grey. His total dislike to dirt will ultimately prove his downfall. He has never won on the surface and in qualifying could only manage to beat two home in his solitary race on a muddy surface. I'm afraid to say that it won't be a repeat of last season's magnificent victory for the horse and connections. Moletown's Rating :
Shankley Shankley is an 1800m specialist who has shown glimpses of ability over 1400m and 1600m. The Nunthorpe Final will be his first ever race over 1200m and as his original master, I can categorically state that he won't be winning this one! He still remains a horse I will follow for the rest of his career as I never wanted to sell him in the first place, circumstance dictated that. Moletown's Rating :
Mokoko has been consistent enough in lesser company over the trip but is another who will find this race a difficult proposition. He has never won on dirt at 1200m and there is no reason to suggest that he will change that statistic here. Easily opposed. Moletown's Rating :
If there are any horses that can break the dominance of the top pairing of Darley Arabian and Gentleman Earl, then Kai Loves Natusik is probably one to consider. He is capable of big run if the going comes muddy. In fairness, it will be difficult for any horse to beat the best two colts of their generation, even if they are not totally wound up for this race. Holmang Horse will have this one spot on and his recent effort that saw him break into this final, if repeated, will see him go close. He is of similar mould to King Kenny D and either of these two will be waiting in the wings to pounce on any error. He has solid claims for a place and maybe just maybe....!! Moletown's Rating : |
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